10 NEW TRENDS IN CHOCOLATE,

Life is tough out there for all of us. Some people consider it frivolous of me to keep on blogging about chocolate. Well for lots of us, both those who produce chocolate and those that eat chocolate, life is still has some joys. Christmas may not see turkey on our tables, but there will be chicken at least and chocolate pudding at the end.With glasses of home-made wine. It is going to be sustainable years for chocolatiers from 2009 on. Chocolate trends that have begun in a small way during the last decade are favourably gathering momentum.

1) Chocolate is being less regarded as a snack. It is now being respected as a food. There is no need to elaborate of the nutritional and health benefits of chocolate, they are already well known. Large companies like Nestle and Mars have very responsibly begun to move with these trends. In time manufacturers will make demands on suppliers to provide types of chocolate that are aimed at the "chocolate-food" market.

2)Artisans are becoming a major force in chocolate. Artisans with "there are more horizons" atitude are leading the trend rather than those who are mired down by traditional and dour thinking. Artisans in the US are taking the lead. The grouping of Art Pollard, Shawn Askinosie, Alex Whitmore(Taza)DeVries, Alan McClure(Patric) will undoubtly grow in numbers and in setting some exciting trends. Surely Tim Childs, Pierre Marcolini, Ramon Morato(Chocovic),Michael Cluize among others will soon join the ranks. I hope they let Clothilde Dusoulier join too for being, if not a pure artisan, the best looking chocolatier in the world.

Here in Indonesia there are a small group of artisans producing some great chocolate too. We have vast potential to grow in numbers and skills using our own resources.

3)The focus of the cocoa BEAN will shift from the Americas and Africa to South East Asia. And I hope to even parts of north Australia.From Vietnam to the Northern Territory of Australia to Vanuatu,lies vast unexplored resources for great cocoa. There are no less than half a million plantations within this area. The soils and climate of this region undoubtly produce some of the best flavours and sensations waiting to be discovered. The adventure of discovery of cocoa is endless. I hope the artisans from the United States, and Europe, with pack their rucksacks and come here. Let me assure you that in this area there are no adverse issues on Fair Trade nor Child Labour. You can go searching with a clear conscience.

4)Premium Chocolate segment is growing. Though now only 10 percent of the total chocolate market and about $12.9billion in value, Nestle estimates that it will soon grow to $14 billion. Growth of premium chocolate in 2007 over 2006 was 18%. Premium chocolate is steadily encroaching on and influencing the mainstream. In effect this means that mainstream will have to seeks news ways to convert chocolate from a snack, often frivolous, to a god healthy food. The Food Services industry will also be demanding not just great taste, but also great goodness and suitable credentials.

5)That Belgian chocolate is the best in the world will be relegated to the book of myths. The widely held belief, particularly among the Swiss, that Swiss chocolate is inimitable will be of no consequence. European chocolate with have to revent itself with a promise of "adventure" in every bite.Verona is sitting too contentedly on its laurels and Lindt has caught the "drift" and making some tentative forays.Spain is the exception and continues to show flair and passion.Having brought chocolate to Europe in the 16th century they have the responsibility to revent chocolate for the rest of Europe.

New Tree says it's Belgian Chocolate. Thought it has broken away from the dour traditions of Belgium Chocolate and have launched a very innovative range that may point the way to the future of marketing and even pricing chocolate.

6)The next artisans will be adventurers. They may be Asian or others. For Asians the good beans, exciting beans, are in their own backyard. The experienced and adventurous Americans, must expand their horizons. Some merely have scratched the surface in Asia-Pacific.But pottering around is not real adventure and often results in inaccuracies or simply with convenient stories.But at least it has been a tentative poke into the unknown.

7) Innovation, some of which was seen at the recent HIE show in Paris, is the next big word in chocolate after Adventure. Natra, of Spain has made some early entry inby adding Omega-3 and fibre. Conveniently Natra owns 50% stake in the Natraceutical Group. There is a promise of more to come, not just in health aspects but also in tastes and flavour surprises, or all three.

8)Should cocoa continue to be classified as Criollo, Forestero and Trinitano? Or should we start classifying cocoa,rationally, according to origin? Is Criollo still to be consdered as the superior bean? The debate will begin and my guess is that we go will go the wine way.

9)Mainstream chocolate will become smaller, chunkier,milk rich or cocoa rich, healthy of course, nutritious and need-occassion targeted(as opposed to youth-occassion targeted).Natra-Natraceutical type alliances may help. Appeal not just to the mouth but also to the intellect.

10)It will all begin at the farm.With happy,coco-wise, chocolate-wise,farmers. Farmers admit to being somewhat intimidated by the "big guys".So this is precisely i where farmers,artisans, the small bakers, horeca,home industries,smaller processors and manufacturers and others can all work towards interesting, involved and personalised relationships.

11)There is one more. Start a trend. Get your children interested in becoming professional chocolatiers rather than lawyers and bankers.There could be money in it as well as the immense possibility of them growing up to be good people too.

CHOCOLATE HAS NO PROBLEMS WITH RUSSIA.

Dr. Condaleeza Rice and our old friend Dick Cheney and some of their friends in the European Union may be somewhat irritated by Russia these days and we hope is just a passing phase. But chocolatiers have no problems about exchanging bear-hugs with the Russians and we hope that is one of the routes to peaceful co-existence.

Barry Callebaut announced a new Chocolate Academy in Chekhau. I love this strategy that Callebaut employs. First they provide Chocolate training. They teach people how to respect and love chocolate. Then they sell chocolate.They did the same in India and China. Ferro built a 91million chocolate facility. And Nestle acquired one of the leading chocolate plants in Russia,Ruzskaya Confectionary Factory.

The Russian Market grows an average of 15.3% in value annually and 5.4% in volume. Which is significantly over the world market of 2%-3%. This is a reflection of the increased wealth, of middle class, urban Russians, growing from $160 a month in 2002 to $540 today.And the shift is towards the high quality premium products.

Financial Times reports that Russia will be the third biggest chocolate market in the world, after US and the UK pretty soon.We should be eyeing this market.

CHOCOLATE GOES EAST?

I was gripped by Bill Emmott's admonishment of Barrack Obama,in last week's Sunday Times, "Europe is for wimps. Tough guys go East."

My mind being one track related it to things chocolate and cocoa. Indeed it seems that chocolate is trending East Ironically it seems that most of the moves are made by the Europeans proving perhaps they are less wimp than we may be.

"Chocolate Challenges" Report says that chocolate consumption in Asia Pacific is growing at a rate of 25% a year. Manufacturers from the West are using new strategies to introduce their products and strategic tie-ups with local networks.

Cadbury, Nestle, Dove, Golden Monkey, Hershey"s have already established local ties. Barry Callebaut starts production with a capacity of 25,000 tonnes at Suzhou. This city is close to Shanghai where chocolate consumption per head is one kg(China per head is 100gm).

China, interesting also seems to go for quality. A new legislation will require that products with more than 5% vegetable fat will need to be labelled as containing cocoa substitutes.

Confectionery New Product Development reports that in 2007, 30% of new confectionery was launched in Asia Pacific second to Europe with 30%.Asia now stands at 17% of the world's cocoa consumption. If forecasts are right the chocolate cultural hub should move somewhere East.

Switzerland is the hub of the chocolate eating world. If it moves East where it it be?China, India, Singapore? I think the answer is coming to be clearer. It must be Indonesia.

Yesterday Merrill Lynch"s Lionel Neave announced the launch of the Gulamerah Fund. Though the name implies Palm Sugar, the Fund is all about chocolate. It aims at raising S$30million to plant cocoa plantations in Java, around Sukabumi(150years there were cocoa plantations here), Jember(close to the Cocoa Research Station) and elsewhere. Neave has been very successful in Cambodia with other crops.

Also not so long ago the Minister of Trade Mari Elka Pangestu(who is reported to love chocolate) announced that Indonesia will work with the Association of Chocolate, Biscuit and Confectionery Industries of the European Union(COABISCO) in developing cocoa based industries here. COABISCO recently visited Indonesian cocoa plantations and cocoa based industries here.

In Feburary Antara reported that PT. Uniflora would invest $2billion in a cocoa processing plant, in Serang, Banten.

These ambitions are not new. Three year ago Piter Jasman , Chairman of the Indonesian Cocoa Association(Askindo)proposed that cocoa exports look east towards ASEAN and China, pointing out that they are nearer and have large populations, with obviously great appetites for chocolate.

Indonesia is ideally placed to be the cocoa/chocolate hub, both functionally and culturally, in the Asia Pacific region. Indonesia produces about 450,000 MT of cocoa each year. About $700million in value. The country is the third largest producer of cocoa in the world. About 400,000 smallholders working on an average of 0.5ha to 1.5ha earn their livelihoods from cocoa. Eighty-five percent of Indonesian cocoa is grown in Sulawesi. The beans exports are unfermented, bulk beans and low cost and is used as a filler with fermented beans by chocolate manufacturers. Some have learned to use it skillfully.

The government has kept a hands off policy with cocoa and that ha actually befefitted the Indonesian farmer who can expect 75-85% profit from export prices as opposed to West African farmers who earn 50-60%.

Indonesia has very competitive advantages. It closer to the vast cocoa and chocolate potential.It has low cost high production capacity, efficient infrastructure and open trading. The cocoa value chain has also experienced phenomenal growth in the last decade. The free trade agreement between China and ASEAN will also be an advantage.

Java has the technology, science, the resources for innovation, expertise and experience and some of the giants in cocoa processing and chocolate manufacturing.

Java bring procurement closer to suppliers and manufacturers located closer to their markets. It then becomes cost beneficial.

We also have an appropriate location, historically rich Jogjakarta , a confluence of many cultures and one capable of absorbing a chocolate too. Surrounded by notable universities, an creative population and a very popular governor. Wat does it entail?

1) It requires learning. Setting up a Faculty of Chocolate at a university. To study the enormous possibilities of chocolate globally and towards the development of tastes, textures and flavours appealing to consumers in Asia Pacific, with focus on using backyard resources. And growing with trends because chocolate and cocoa development will never slow down.

For the university it can turn into commercial possibilities. Charles Stuart University in Australia made their own wine and cheese. And enterprisingly export their products.

2) Create a kind of Astor Center (modelled after New York"s)where the finest chocolate, food, nutrition experts can discourse share and demonstrate all aspects of their passion.

3) Set up a interactive, taste and experience oriented chocolate museum. Probably on location in a plantation.

4) Set up a carefully studied and researched chocolate cafe with franchise possibility. Carefully because it can be a venture fraught with some discouraging problems as Max Brenner in Singapore is experiencing.

5)Relate to the tourist industry and export potential of resources gained.

I will take up each of these points in future blogs.
It is a simple and feasible start and I hope some initiatives come along.